Just two months ago when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
