Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position and Settled Debates
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.
It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.