Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."